Wednesday 16 December 2015

How does the Hottest 100 stack up with the Triple J album polls

The dust has settled on Triple J's listener's album poll for 2015, with Tame Impala's Lonerism placing ahead of the J Award winning Sometimes I Sit And Think, And Sometimes I Just Sit from Courtney Barnett.

So to what extent does this give us an indication of how the pointy end of the Hottest 100 will pan out?




Looking at instances where songs and albums are eligible in the same year... a little, but not the full picture.

Year
#1
Top 5
Top 10
Top 20
1997
Yes
2
5
7
1998
No
1
4
6[1]
1999
No[2]
1
3
4
2000
Yes
4
6
6
2001
Yes
3
4
8
2002
Yes
3
7
14[3]
2003
Yes
3
5
10
2004
Yes
4
6
11
2005
Yes
5
9
13
2006
Yes
2
5
9
2007
No[4]
3
3
3
2008
Yes
5
7
10
2009
Yes
2
5
9
2010
Yes
1
1
3
2011
Yes
2
3
8
2012
No
3
7
10
2013
No[5]
3
4
11
2014
Yes
2
4
9


Based on past history, one would expect three songs within the top five, including the number one song, to have appeared on albums that placed within the albums list. In a typical year, you'd expect half of the top 10 and at least 8 from within the top 20 to have appeared on these albums.
If this holds, that good news for the likes of Tame Impala ("Let it Happen"), Courtney Barnett ("Pedestrian at Best"), The Rubens ("Hoops") and Kendrick Lamar ("King Kunta") in their chances of placing at #1.
This may not be a typical year though.  Looking at Patrick Avenell's predictions from the "Ultimate Guide for the 2015 Triple J Hottest 100" , he's anticipating that seven songs within the top 10, including the #1 song (Major Lazer's "Lean On") will not be from albums to make the listeners poll.

These numbers shift slightly if you include instances where songs and their corresponding albums were eligible in different years.[6] As far as #1 is concerned, this doesn't seem a likely event this year - most of the other strong contenders ("Lean On",  Jarryd James' "Do You Remember" , The Weekend's "Can't Feel My Face") also appeared on 2015 albums. I guess there is always a possibility of Peking Duk releasing their debut album. Or Chet Faker continuing his quest to be the new age Powderfinger.

In three cases the #1 song has appeared on an album that  placed within the listeners top ten in a different year from which the song made the Hottest 100. "These Days", while not on the 1998 album Internationalist, likely benefitted from the fact that most of the singles off of that album were eligible the following year (with "Passenger" not included on the 1999 voting list). With "Knights of Cydonia", although released as a single in August 2006, was not included on the 2006 voting shortlist. Instead, it gained popularity throughout 2007 (as did the band), with frequent play on JTV, and inclusion on Guitar Hero III. That Muse toured Australia twice during 2007 (in January as part of the Big Day Out tour, and then a headlining tour in November 2007) also would have helped. Interestingly, both Powderfinger and Muse had songs place in the top 10 of the Hottest 100 the year prior to placing at #1.

"Riptide" is a more anomalous case. While it remained in the ARIA top 40 until February 2014, it's (pre-Hottest 100) peak chart performance was at #7, in July 2013. Going in to the Hottest 100, the artists generally considered to have a chance at placing at #1 were, in addition to Vance Joy, Lorde, Daft Punk and the Arctic Monkeys. These three artists all received more votes than Vance Joy, but the votes were split amongst multiple, high ranking tracks (Lorde: #2 - "Royals" , #12 "Tennis Court", #15 "Team"; Arctic Monkeys: #4 "Do I Wanna Know?", #6 "Why'd You Only Call Me When You're High?", #18 "Arabella" ; Daft Punk - #3 "Get Lucky", #17 "Lose Yourself to Dance"). Conversely, Vance Joy didn't have the same degree of internal competition ("Play With Fire" unexpectedly placed at #95). My thoughts are that this scenario would need to re-occur to get Major Lazer (or Drake or one of the non-Kendrick Lamar/Tame Impala contenders) over the line... and it's not outside the realms of possibility, particularly so far as Tame Impala is concerned.

Disregarding songs that have appeared on albums that placed on album polls in different years, there are only two occasions where a song topped the Hottest 100. In both of these songs were, huge peaking commercially and getting large amounts of radio play, right at the time of the Hottest 100 voting. The 1998 #1, The Offspring's much reviled "Pretty Fly (For a White Guy)" was at #1 on the ARIA charts for six weeks, from the week commencing 13 December 1998 until the week commencing 17 January 1999. 2012's #1, Macklemore and Ryan Lewis' "Thrift Shop" was at #1 on the ARIA charts for 7 weeks - from 3 December 2012 until the week commencing 14 January.

Right now, there doesn't appear to be any huge, Hottest 100 eligible song dominating the ARIA charts. Thankfully, "Downtown" peaked a few months early.


[1] Includes The Living End’s cover of “Tainted Love”
[2] “These Days” later appeared on the 2000 album Odyssey #5 which placed at #2 in the 2000 albums poll
[3] Includes The Foo Fighters “The One” which appeared on the Orange County soundtrack
[4] “Knights of Cydonia” was released on the 2006 album Black Holes & Revelations which placed at #4 in the 2006 albums poll
[5] “Riptide” was later released on the 2014 album Dream Your Life Away which placed at #8 in the 2014 albums poll
[6]

Year
#1
Top 5
Top 10
Top 20
1997
Yes
2
5
8
1998
No
1
6
9
1999
Yes
2
4
7
2000
Yes
4
7
8
2001
Yes
3
5
10
2002
Yes
3
7
14
2003
Yes
3
6
12
2004
Yes
4
6
12
2005
Yes
5
9
13
2006
Yes
2
5
10
2007
Yes
4
4
5
2008
Yes
5
7
10
2009
Yes
2
5
9
2010
Yes
1
3
6
2011
Yes
3
4
9
2012
No
3
7
11
2013
Yes
4
6
13
2014
Yes
2
4
9

3 comments:

  1. Fantastic video for Let It Happen. Don't know what was going on with Hoops. The Rubens have made some great clips. Out of the strong contenders you mentioned I'd go'Do you Remember?' Which by the way featured in a great ad for Western Sydney University.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Who have you put votes in for?

    ReplyDelete
  3. A bunch of the usual suspects - Tame Impala, The Drones, Violent Soho...

    http://blandmike.blogspot.com.au/2015/12/triple-js-hottest-100-votes-2015.html

    ReplyDelete